Reflections on politics of the week

Badenoch's backroom boys and girls; Stephen Flynn abandons his plans for a dual mandate; ongoing turnover at the centre of government

Donald Trump continues to be the gift that keeps on giving with tariff and cryptocurrency enthusiast and occasional conspiracy theorist Howard Lutnick put forward as Secretary of Commerce, former CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment Linda McMahon proposed as Secretary of Education, Matt Gaetz withdrawing from the nomination for Attorney General and being replaced by Pam Bondi, Chair of the Center for Litigation at the America First Policy Institute and pro-tariff investor and hedge fund manager Scott Bessent nominated to be Secretary of the Treasury. The United States also lifted the restrictions on Ukraine’s use of MGM-140 ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles and approved the supply of anti-personnel land mines, while Russia attacked the Ukrainian city of Dnipro with what was initially believed to be an inter-continental ballistic missile but turned out to be a new model of intermediate-range hypersonic missile.

With all of that going on, as is now a regular feature, I want to scoop up some of the stories which may have been elbowed aside in the scrum for public attention.

LOTO, YOLO

PoliticsHome has reported a list of appointments by the new Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch to support her in the Leader of the Opposition’s Office (LOTO). As Chief of Staff (or “the Sue Gray of his generation”), she has chosen Lee Rowley, MP for North East Derbyshire from 2017 to 2024. After studying at Lincoln College, Oxford (where he was the year below Rishi Sunak) and the University of Manchester, Rowley worked in financial services and management consultancy for Barclays, KPMG, Santander UK and Co-op Insurance. He also served on Westminster City Council and contributed to the Centre for Social Justice.

In 2021, he was appointed Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Business and Industry and a Lord Commissioner of HM Treasury (a government whip), but resigned as Boris Johnson’s government collapsed in July 2022. He proposed Badenoch as a candidate in the ensuing leadership election. Liz Truss made him Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Housing in September 2022 but he was then moved within DLUHC the following month by Sunak to look after local government and building safety. He reverted to his original role but at a higher grade in November 2023 as Minister of State for Housing, Planning and Building Safety.

With Luke Graham, MP for Ochil and South Perthshire 2017-19, Rowley founded and co-chaired Freer, an initiative by the Institute for Economic Affairs to promote economic and social liberalism. He believes in a smaller state and a more self-reliant society, admiring Ronald Reagan, and is described as Badenoch’s best friend in politics. He gave her leadership campaign a “business-like structure”, reflecting his background in management consultancy, and had applied the same diligent and methodical approach to his ministerial briefs. He is well-regarded across the politicals spectrum and win admiration for the calmness with which he took his defeat as an MP at the general election.

Rowley’s closeness to Badenoch makes him a good fit as Chief of Staff and there will be no need for a settling-in period. His political instincts align with hers, and his meticulous, professional approach, drawing from his priavte-sector experience, will be vital in making LOTO, and by extension the Opposition more broadly, work efficiently. That is a vital task given the shrunken size of the parliamentary party and the sheer effort which will be required in maintaining a credible and effective challenge to the government through the long years of the coming parliament.

As Deputy Chief of Staff, Badenoch has turned to Henry Newman, a former adviser to Michael Gove who has been harrying the government since the summer through his Substack The Whitehall Project. He is a veteran of the SpAd world, having advised Francis Maude at the Cabinet Office, Michael Gove at the Ministry of Justice 2015-16 and at the Cabinet Office 2019-20, Boris Johnson in 10 Downing Street 2020-22, Gove again at the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities 2022-24. He is a close friend of Carrie Johnson from their time in the Vote Leave campaign in 2016, and unsuccessfully sought the Conservative candidacy for Bexhill and Battle for this year’s general election. Newman knows what the apex of power is like, though he will find the Leader of the Opposition’s Office a more humble posting than Downing Street, and is well-connected in party politics and policy terms.

Head of Office is Robert Rams, who worked for Nigel Evans MP, managed the Conservative Group in the London Assembly and was special adviser to Theresa Villiers at the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. Victoria Hewson, Badenoch’s special adviser at the Department for Business and Trade and before that at the Foreign Office and the Northern Ireland Office, becomes Head of Policy. Former Badenoch media special adviser, Dylan Sharpe, is now her official spokesperson, having Head of Broadcast at 10 Downing Street under Theresa May and a special adviser to Damian Green as First Secretary of State. Daniel el-Gamry, yet another Badenoch special adviser at Business and Trade, is Head of Engagement; he previously advised Robert Jenrick as Housing, Communities and Local Government Secretary before moving to 10 Downing Street as a special adviser to Boris Johnson.

Luke Gardiner is Head of Strategic Initiatives; James Roberts is Political Secretary, with Stephen Alton as Deputy Political Secretary; David Goss becomes Private Secretary; Sonia Zvedeniuk is Senior Adviser while Lottie Moore and Prue Chapman are also advisers.

It is noticeable that most of the appointees are people who have worked for Badenoch before. As would be expected after 14 years of a Conservative (or Conservative-dominated coalition) government, most also have extensive experience of Whitehall and Westminster. The two questions which are still to be answered are: do they have the energy and drive for what will at times seem like a long and slow march towards the next general election; and can they cut their cloth accordingly to the more modest resources and greater struggle for media and public attention that being in opposition represents compared to being in government. A great deal of that, of course, will depend on Badenoch’s leadership and that of Lee Rowley. On the whole, though, it seems like a solid and capable team.

Not in like Flynn after all

In my last set of reflections, I looked at the controversy stirred up by the Scottish National Party’s Westminster leader, Stephen Flynn, when he decided to seek election to the Scottish Parliament in 2026 but retain his position as an MP until the next general election. It was felt that challenging an incumbent SNP MSP, Audrey Nicoll, displayed a lack of solidarity, while proposing to hold a dual mandate for two or three years at Holyrood and Westminster reeked of hypocrisy, given how eagerly he and his colleagues had attacked the previous Leader of the Scottish Conservatives, Douglas Ross, for doing exactly that.

It now seems Flynn has reconsidered his position. He admitted “Hands up, I’ve got this one wrong”, and while his intention to serve a dual mandate was “for the right reasons” and “genuine in its intent”, he would instead “look forward to assessing the new candidate selection rules that my party will put in place”. It is not clear whether he will still seek to become an MSP in 2026 and resign his seat in the House of Commons, or delay any ambitions in Holyrood until after 2029, but the latter surely seems less likely. He is an ambitious and highly rated politician, and to defer a move to the Scottish Parliament, which the SNP regards as its principal battleground, until the next Scottish elections in 2031, would demonstrate a patience rare in politicians of any party.

Any long-term effects of Flynn’s misstep will reveal themselves gradually. Kenny Farquharson, writing in The Times, suggested the episode had damaged Flynn’s relations with his party colleagues: “he is so sure of his political destiny he thinks a grateful party should be scattering rose petals in his path”. Flynn was guilty of “arrogance”, “entitlement” and “hypocrisy”, acting like “a man who expected everyone else to be as delighted with him as he was with himself”. There was a risk, Farquharson concluded, that Flynn had simply overreached himself:

Nothing offends Scottish sensibilities more than a man who gets above himself. Ambition matched by talent is celebrated. Ambition in excess of talent is scorned. Folk know instinctively when a man is only 70 per cent as able as he thinks he is.

Many people, among whom I would include myself, will feel this resonates with their general impressions of Flynn. Certainly he is able, if somewhat charmless, quick on his feet and capable of scoring effective and damaging partisan points. By a strange process, though, those gifts are somehow diminished rather than magnified by his apparent self-regard. Whether it is a virtue or a vice, our political culture is deeply suspicious of overt and unqualified ambition, which makes Flynn’s conduct in this episode deeply off-putting.

His apology was also a very poor affair, as so many political apologies are now. The thin veneer of humility wore away quickly as he emphasised how sincere his intentions had been, and one could infer that any fault lay with the sensibilities of others rather than his own actions. His attempt to defend a dual mandate with reference to that exercised by the First Minister of Scotland, John Swinney, was weak, as Swinney was only double-hatted for two years at the very beginning of the Scottish Parliament, from 1999 to 2001. Moreover, whether intentionally or not, it invited a broader comparison with the two-time leader of the Scottish National Party, as if to say-without-saying that Flynn’s ambition is to succeed Swinney at some point.

This will probably all be forgotten, or at least largely so. It is a rare error of judgement or incident of misconduct which lingers in the memory of the political community. If I had to make a prediction, it would be that Flynn will be a candidate in the 2026 Holyrood elections, and will probably become an MSP. When Swinney eventually gives up the leadership of the SNP, I expect Flynn will be a strong candidate to succeed him, but he may well face a stiff challenge from the current Deputy First Minister and Cabinet Secretary for Economy and Gaelic, Kate Forbes; Jenny Gilruth, Cabinet Secretary for Education and Skills, and Neil Gray, Health and Social Care Secretary, might also be runners. But Flynn is undoubtedly formidable.

Yet the strangest and most seemingly minor factors can come back to haunt politicians. It was believed that Jonathan Aitken, the Conservative MP for Thanet East (1974-83) then South Thanet (1983-97) remained on the backbenches throughout Margaret Thatcher’s premiership because of the way he had ended a romantic relationship with her daughter Carol just before the general election in 1979; the incoming Prime Minister supposedly told cabinet colleagues she was “damned” if she was going to offer a ministerial role to the man “who had made Carol cry”. His later law-breaking notwithstanding, Aitken was undoubtedly clever, fluent and able, as well as physically courageous, with an impressive knowledge of foreign affairs and security issues. After Thatcher’s fall, he became Minister of State for Defence Procurement (1992-94) before being promoted to the cabinet as Chief Secretary to the Treasury (1994-95). But his 18 years as a backbench MP before any preferment came his way stood out, as many duller and less knowledgeable but steadier colleagues climbed the ministerial ladder. You never know what can determine your political fate.

More turnover at the centre of government

One persistent criticism of the government since its formation has been the degree of change, absence and confusion at the centre, in roles directly supporting the Prime Minister. It was widely expected that the Cabinet Secretary, Simon Case, would not stay in post for long; he is suffering from a serious neurological condition and has also been damaged reputationally by his involvement in “Partygate” and revelations from the public inquiry into the government’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic. Having been appointed in September 2020, there was a feeling that if he could reach four years in service, that would seem a sufficiently substantial term to contemplate a departure not long afterwards. However, over the summer, frustration grew that Case had not officially announced his retirement, which meant the competition to find his successor could not begin. He eventually confirmed his departure in September, and the shortlisted applicants are currently being interviewed.

There was further disruption with two more posts. In August, the Prime Minister cancelled the appointment of General Gwyn Jenkins as National Security Adviser, made by Rishi Sunak in April, and announced that the competition to succeed Sir Tim Barrow would be reopened. It is not clear how far that process went, but earlier this month Sir Tony Blair’s former Downing Street Chief of Staff, Jonathan Powell, was named as the next National Security Adviser. He will carry out the role as a politically appointed special adviser rather than as a civil servant, which will have several consequences for the nature of the post, about which I have written.

In October, the Downing Street Chief of Staff, Sue Gray, who had been dogged by controversy and media speculation, resigned and was replaced by the Prime Minister’s Head of Political Strategy, Morgan McSweeney (who has been Chief of Staff to Keir Starmer as Leader of the Opposition from 2020 to 2021). Initially it was said she would take up a new and amorphous role as the Prime Minister’s Envoy to the Nations and Regions, but Downing Street recently announced that she would not do so, and the position seems to have lapsed. The Independent reported that ministers involved were “less than impressed” with Gray and “not enthusiastic” about her appointment.

There was also a vacancy for Principal Private Secretary to the Prime Minister, after the previous occupant, Elizabeth Perelman, moved to a role in the Cabinet Office. In October, Ninjeri Pandit, who had briefly been director the Number 10 Policy Unit after serving as health and social care lead, was appointed to the post. However, on 15 November, barely a month after she took over, the Cabinet Office has advertised a competition for the post, with a closing date of 1 December. Civil Service World has reported that Pandit is technically on secondment in her current role, but it seems extraordinary that she may end up serving only two or three months.

Sometimes a high turnover in critical jobs cannot be avoided. But Sir Keir Starmer has not yet been Prime Minister for five months, and there have been changes, or will soon be changes in the Cabinet Secretary, the Downing Street Chief of Staff (and the appointment of two Deputy Chiefs of Staff), the National Security Adviser and the Principal Private Secretary. In addition, Ailsa Terry, Private Secretary for Foreign Affairs, only started in her role in August. Some of these were, undoubtedly, unforced errors: the management of Sue Gray was poor and her departure was clearly not planned, while cancelling Jenkins’s appointment as National Security Adviser was purely Starmer’s choice.

There is plenty of blame to be spread around. Fundamentally, however, the apex of government is not being well run. Sober, orderly administration was a major part of Starmer’s offering to the electorate, and it seemed plausible given his own experience as Director of Public Prosecutions, running the Crown Prosecution Service and its thousands of staff from 2008 to 2013. He also attended the weekly meetings of permanent secretaries chaired by the Cabinet Secretary, the (in)famous “Wednesday Morning Colleagues”. No prime minister has ever held such senior office in the civil service. But there is a striking lack of grip at the moment.