Labour's possible civil service picks
A number of senior officials are coming to the end of their tenure or could reasonably be moved if a new Labour government wanted fresh faces
This is a short entry in the log, more to put information on my and your radar in a particular way than to make any sweeping conclusions or draw profound insights at the moment. Last week I wrote a lengthy essay in which I pieced together what we know and what has been suggested about how Whitehall might be reshaped and repopulated under a new Labour government. Some of the possible changes are institutional but some are also about the occupants of offices rather than the offices themselves.
We are at a stage where there are some unusual vulnerabilities to change. Most obviously, the cabinet secretary, Simon Case, has had an extremely torrid stint since he was appointed in September 2020. Here is not the place to rehearse the reasons for that, nor the rights or wrongs of various criticisms made of him; but it is certainly open to question whether Sir Keir Starmer, if he becomes prime minister later this year, will let Case continue in post, or whether he will seek to remove him. (I looked at some potential successors in my essay.) There may be a compromise whereby Case remains as cabinet secretary just long enough into a new régime that his departure could plausibly be regarded as planned, and if he were to eke out his tenure to something like four-and-a-half years, in the spring of 2025, that might have a veil of regularity to it (though he would be leaving as head of the civil service at the age of 46).
Since the publication of the Northcote-Trevelyan Report in 1854, it has been a working assumption of our constitutional arrangements that we have a clear distinction between ministers and officials. It is accepted that politicians will have an influence, perhaps a decisive one, over the appointment of some senior civil servants, but those appointments are made in theory on a permanent and neutral basis, and we do not have a tradition of substantial change in senior administrative posts when a new government takes office.
As is often the case with the British constitution, however, there are grey areas. These need not be sinister or evidence of creeping politicisation: it is reasonable for a prime minister, for example, to have as his closest official advisers people with whom he can forge a good working relationship and people whom he can trust. Nevertheless, it is rare for a senior civil servant to be explicitly removed for political or policy reasons. An exception which proves the soundness of the rule was the widely condemned dismissal of Sir Tom Scholar as permanent secretary at the Treasury when Liz Truss became prime minister in September 2022, though as he takes over today as chairman of financial giant Nomura Europe Holdings it is safe to assume he has not been disadvantaged in salary terms too much.
But public appointments can be manipulated, terms extended or shortened and people shuffled sideways. What I have done here, therefore, is to list some senior officials who have been in post for long enough that they are due to move or retire, or that they could plausibly be moved if a new government wanted a fresh face and a fresh approach. I am not suggesting that all of these people will move, or should move, or will clash with a change of government. I am simply putting some facts together to inform how we think about the shape of a potential Labour government. Starmer and his advisers could find that they can make far-reaching changes in a relatively short space of time. They are ordered by length of service, and this is a selective rather than exhaustive list.
Sir Chris Wormald, permanent secretary, Department of Health and Social Care (January 2016): the doyen of the permanent secretaries’ community by a long margin, Wormald stepped into some of Simon Case’s responsibilities when the cabinet secretary was on medical leave from October 2023 to January 2024. He has been a permanent secretary for 12 years, and before that was head of Nick Clegg’s office as deputy prime minister, but is still only 55. He would be a safe choice to be cabinet secretary if Case were to depart but there is little buzz around the idea. Health is a central policy area for all governments but the Labour Party has pledged to “build an NHS fit for the future”, and the portfolio has been held since 2021 by the young and ambitious Wes Streeting. Radical change to healthcare, as well as social care, is needed: will a new government was a new face or is Wormald’s vast experience an important weapon in the department’s armoury?
Peter Schofield, permanent secretary, Department for Work and Pensions (January 2018): with a budget of nearly £200 billion, DWP is the biggest spending department in Whitehall, as well as the second-largest by headcount after the Ministry of Justice with more than 95,000 employees. It has recently been damned by the Parliamentary and Health Service Ombudsman for its handling of women affected by the raising of the state pension age and faces a potentially enormous compensation bill. Schofield, who began his career at the Treasury, has already marked six years at the top of DWP and is highly regarded by his colleagues; he was diagnosed with Parkinson’s disease in 2020, but has talked candidly about his determination to continue his career. “It is something you’ll have forever and it will get worse, but it can be managed,” he said, explaining that he didn’t want people “to have a sense that you can’t carry on doing a big job”. His name has been mentioned as a candidate for cabinet secretary, but the WASPI issue may be the immediate focus, and he and ministers will need to take a view on how DWP’s top civil servant should handle systemic failures in administration.
Dame Karen Pierce, ambassador to the United States (March 2020): it is expected that a new envoy will be appointed in time to arrive in Washington in January, and it may be the current government which chooses the candidate. This will be a key post but the real challenge will not be known until the result of November’s presidential election. It is possible an appointment could be held off till after that, but it is neither necessary nor widely expected. Nigel Farage has offered his services but is unlikely to be chosen.
Sir Matthew Rycroft, permanent secretary, Home Office (March 2020): the Home Office is the perennially dysfunctional member of the Whitehall family, and has struggled with immigration and border security for years. Repeated restructuring has made little difference, and I suggested last month in CapX that the problems are as much in leadership as in organisation. Rycroft is a career diplomat and was drafted in from the Department for International Development to run the Home Office when Sir Philip Rutnam resigned and sued the government for constructive dismissal. He has suffered his own problems, disagreeing with Priti Patel when she was home secretary over whether the Rwanda plan represented value for money, and having some fiery encounters with the House of Commons Home Affairs Committee in recent months. Rycroft will be 56 this summer, and runs the risk of being the fall guy for Rwanda; equally, he might hope to be appointed ambassador to Washington when Dame Karen Pierce steps down (see above). Recent select committee appearances have not enhanced his reputation.
Ken McCallum, director general, MI5 (April 2020): McCallum is a highly rated veteran of the Security Service, where he has worked for almost 30 years. He worked on Northern Ireland issues and was responsible for counter-terrorism during the London Olympic Games in 2012 before serving as deputy director general from 2017 to 2020. He is 50 this year, a mathematics graduate from the University of Glasgow, and has already served under four home secretaries (albeit Grant Shapps held the post for less than a week). Several of his recent predecessors have served more than four years, so McCallum may not be contemplating a change, and it is unlikely a new government would seek to disrupt the leadership of MI5 when it is generally considered to be performing extremely well.
Dame Barbara Woodward, permanent representative to the United Nations (August 2020): a relative latecomer to the Diplomatic Service, joining in her 30s, Woodward has been in the front line in recent months as the UN Security Council has argued fiercely over Israel’s war in Gaza. She will soon have spent four years at the United Nations, and was British ambassador to China for five years before that, and turns 63 next month. She has been mentioned as a possible successor to Pierce as Washington envoy (see above), though if there is a change at the top of the Diplomatic Service (see Sir Philip Barton, below), it will not have escaped Labour’s notice that a woman has never been permanent secretary at the Foreign Office. In any event, whether by promotion or retirement, a change at the UN is likely soon, and will be a key appointment in shaping the UK’s approach to international organisations.
Sir Philip Barton, permanent secretary, Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (September 2020): summoned to head the Diplomatic Service after a mere three weeks as high commissioner to India, Barton was severely criticised for his handling of the UK’s withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021. The House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee went so far as to say it had “lost confidence in the Permanent Under-Secretary, who should consider his position”. Its chair, Alicia Kearns, clashed with Barton again in January over the crisis in Gaza. He will turn 61 in the summer, and four years would not be a short stint as permanent secretary.
Sir Richard Moore, chief of the Secret Intelligence Service (October 2020): it is less than 14 years since Sir John Sawers made a huge change in the public profile of the head of MI6 by giving a speech at the Society of Editors which The Times called “the first of its kind”. Since being appointed C, as the chief of SIS is known in Whitehall, Moore has deliberately been much more public-facing, even maintaining a Twitter account. His career has taken in roles in SIS as posts in the mainstream Foreign Office, and he was ambassador to Turkey from 2014 to 2017 then deputy national security adviser (intelligence, security and resilience) to Theresa May. He will likely expect a term of five years, putting his departure into the second half of next year, though recent publicity over his resignation from the Garrick Club because of its men-only membership policy was unedifying. Sawers, who was C from 2009 to 2014, was appointed to rebuild the service after the Iraq War, while his successor, Sir Alex Younger, was a more conventional and low-profile chief. Sir Keir Starmer, having served as director of public prosecutions ad adviser on human rights to the Northern Ireland Policing Board, has some familiarity with the security world, and it is alleged that Labour have worked with consultancy Hakluyt & Co, founded by former intelligence officers, to court business supporters.
Susan Acland-Hood, permanent secretary, Department for Education (December 2020): appointed to head the department temporarily in September 2020 after Jonathan Slater was controversially dismissed over the regrading of examination results, Acland-Hood was confirmed in post three months later and is now on her sixth secretary of state. If Bridget Phillipson becomes the seventh after the general election, Labour’s policy mission, entitled “Breaking down the barriers to opportunity”, encompasses raising standards, widening access and reforming childcare. Acland-Hood is only 46, but has a background in the civil service which takes in criminal justice, enterprise, the environment, energy, exports and social exclusion. She has described education as her “dream job”, but the four-year mark would be an opportunity to move on if she, or a new minister, preferred.
David Williams, permanent secretary, Ministry of Defence (April 2021): defence spending, procurement and recruiting are acutely sensitive issues at the moment, and the MoD has been the subject of two damning reports in recent months from the House of Commons Defence Committee and the Public Accounts Committee. In addition there are ongoing accusations of a toxic culture of sexually inappropriate behaviour within the MoD. There is an increasing acceptance that the problems within the department are deep and long-standing, and Williams had to apologise recently for a serious error in record-keeping. He is hardly the sole author of the troubles affecting defence, but he has shown little ability to make improvements.
Susannah Goshko, high commissioner to Canada (September 2021): Ottawa is an ambassadorial post of varying importance, but Canada’s membership of the Commonwealth and of NATO ally gives it a distinctive place in the UK’s international relations. It is also part of the Five Eyes intelligence alliance. Goshko still has several years ahead of her, with a strong background in national security, and could easily serve until 2025 without stretching her tenure, but if there are significant moves within the Diplomatic Service she could well be part of a shuffle.
Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, chief of the Defence Staff (November 2021): the professional head of the armed forces was approaching the end of his term but last month the prime minister asked him to stay in post until autumn 2025. This is unlikely to be rescinded by an incoming government, and Radakin’s performance has been well regarded in many respects, particularly in terms of his support for Ukraine. But autumn 2025 is likely to be a hard out—only Admiral of the Fleet The Earl Mountbatten of Burma (1959-65) and Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup (2006-10) have ever served more than four years—so Starmer and his defence secretary, likely to be John Healey, will need to think about potential replacements before too long.
Admiral Sir Ben Key, first sea lord and chief of the Naval Staff (November 2021): Key succeeded Radakin as head of the Royal Navy, and his performance when chief of joint operations in overseeing the logistical elements of the withdrawal from Kabul in 2021 was regarded as a relative success. He was rumoured to be a candidate for chief of the Defence Staff when Radakin was appointed, although only a three-star officer at the time, but is less likely to be favoured this time: a second Royal Navy CDS would be unpopular with the other services (though Radakin was the first sailor to head the armed forces since Admiral Sir Michael Boyce in 2001-03). Key will also be 59 in November. However, with the crisis in the Red Sea highlighting the importance of maritime security, choosing a new first sea lord will be a critical appointment.
The only factor which definitively links this baker’s dozen of public servants is that they have all been in their current posts for around three years or more, and therefore in civil service terms could plausibly be contemplating a move at the time of a likely general election. Some are very highly rated while others have had difficult episodes recently. But the Labour Party had been out of power for 14 years, during which time a great deal has changed in Whitehall and in the wider world. In several policy areas, an incoming Starmer administration will at least consider whether new official leadership is a necessary part of its plans, so this may serve as a handy guide for some names to look out for. But, as I say, it is by no means exhaustive, and I am not for a moment suggesting Labour will purge the civil service. After all, if the party does win, the new prime minister and his chief of staff will both be former permanent secretaries. That will be a first.